Alternative

There is some evidence (courtesy of the IMF) that the economy in Sub-Saharan Africa is growing faster than the world as a whole.  Not by much but when you consider the considerable effort some of its governments put into preventing any growth, this has to be seen as good news.  It still lags behind the Developing World, taken together, but a case is starting to emerge for including the continent in a portfolio.  I expect that this resurgence is a little fragile; were China, for example, to lose its need for African raw materials, things could take a turn for the worse.

Also, despite the enthusiasm of some fund management companies, it is not an easy place to invest and the local stock markets will not have much capacity for major inflows of capital.  In investment terms, Sub-Saharan Africa tends to mean South Africa plus stocks in companies involved in mining, for instance.  The political risks are considerable in much of the continent and it is probably a long way off being seen as a new China were, for all its faults, the government is seen as stable and not wholly irrational.

I know it makes me sound like an old duffer but I am sure fashions come and go quicker these days.

The latest must have investment accessory is the Inverted Index Fund.  These return the opposite of the index and allow investors a way of shorting.  There are not many ways for private investors to take advantage of a belief than an index (or other investment) will go down in value, other than not investing in it, so some will welcome there arrival.  A number of fund groups are scheduling launches, almost certainly in equities and commodities so watch this space.

Whether there is a place for these in the portfolio of a long term investor, I am not so sure, but they are certainly of interest.  Technically, many things are becoming possible and I am sure we have only just seen the start of much innovation but as investors we shall need to be careful not to be sucked into the hype.

If, however, you have been waiting for a simple tool to allow you to make money (we hope) from shorting, it may be that your waiting days will end soon.

It is all getting a little hairy in the markets at the moment; all major markets posted significant falls yesterday and the news may not be much better today.  Are we witnessing (or, for those of us with investments, experiencing) the final act in the credit crunch tragedy or merely another scene?  Also, what course of action should a rational investor take?

No one can be sure where this crisis is heading; quite a few problems have been brought to the fore but there may be more to come.  It is almost laughable now that, only a matter of weeks ago, our august politicians were focused on the rate of tax paid by Private Equity to the extent that they restructured our entire tax system in an attempt to penalise them.  Meanwhile, in the real world, things were going pear shaped.

Poorly diversified investors may have the least comfortable experience, particularly those poor private investors who held significant chunks of Northern Rock stock for no real reason.  Also, those with too large a proportion of equities may find themselves ruing their lack of investment spread and property looks set for a difficult period.

What is holding up?  Well, the bond markets, unloved of late, may find themselves viewed more favourably (especially government and high quality) and commodities may continue their climb.  But it seems, oddly enough, that emerging markets may emerge (pardon the pun) the real winners from this period of instability.  A year or so from now, they may look quite grown up, while some of the racier classes of investment, such as private equity, may look a little discredited (another pun?).

As ever, the advice to any investor is to ensure that you are properly diversified.  Do not get drawn into this year's must have (or have not) sector and only invest if you have a long term outlook.

It is quite likely that soon every conceivable investment niche will have been covered as Barclays has just launched an ETF tracking Timber and Forestry.  This fund will track the S&P Global Timber and Forestry Index and will come as a welcome relief by all those stressed by their lack of ability to do so.  Most, however, will not find their world rocked by this arrival but it does illustrate a trend, that of Alternative investments.

Alternatives, which include Hedge Funds and Private Equity as well as art and forestry, amongst others, have become much talked about in the last five years, or so.  Popularised by their successful inclusion in the influential Harvard Endowment Fund, they have spread out into many Wealth Management portfolios.  Their supposed benefit is high returns uncorrelated with equities.  There are one or two problems, though.  Firstly, as with all diversification, if everyone does it, the benefits of the diversification are reduced.  Secondly, any prospect for excess returns disappears when everyone piles in, certainly if you are not the first.  Harvard benefited enormously by getting in early and waiting for their imitators to pile in and drive up values.  Thirdly, what works for a multi-billion dollar fund with an indefinite timescale, may not work for those of us with fewer resources at our disposal.  Harvard went out and bought forests, not funds tracking the fortunes of forestry companies.  It is unlikely that forestry shares will exhibit the same characteristics in terms of returns and volatility as actual forests.

However, do not underestimate the power of marketing and investors desire to buy into a bandwagon after it has left town.  That is not to say that their may not be a place for it, it is just wise to manage your expectations.  For those with deeper pockets, their are funds which give access to forestry ownership, albeit with higher costs than Barclays iShare levies; currently a modest 0.65% per annum.