I do wish I had the time and inclination to keep a record of predictions made by economists.  It seems like only yesterday (well, six months) that economists from every institution were predicting several hikes in interest rates in doom laden tones.  Yet, here we are, and those self same experts are falling over themselves to time the next drop in rates.  Clearly, it does not pay to be too bashful to a successful economist, nor must they be the types to mull over the past.

Thankfully for them, few seem to mind that they are often wrong, particularly their employers.  For the rest of us, it may make sense to discount predictions by a factor similar to the confidence with which they are made and to be very cautious about acting upon the views of these soothsayers.

I am not for a minute suggesting that economists have no purpose, quite the opposite, but they are too often used to obtain column inches for their employer rather than being usefully employed.